Aurora County vs. South Dakota Comparative Trends Analysis: Population Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Aurora County: 2022 Population = 2,755 2022 Percent of State = 0.30% South Dakota: 2022 Population = 909,824 2022 Percent of U.S. = 0.27% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of Aurora County with comparisons to South Dakota and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing Aurora County vs. South Dakota's population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 tracks Aurora County's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Aurora County's population dropped from 4,161 in 1969 to 2,755 in 2022, for a net loss of -1,406, or -33.79%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 traces South Dakota's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, South Dakota's population rose from 668,000 in 1969 to 909,824 in 2022, for a net gain of 241,824, or 36.20%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 portrays Aurora County's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with South Dakota, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Aurora County's overall population growth was -33.79% over 1969-2022 trailed South Dakota's increase of 36.20%, and fell below the United States' increase of 65.57%. Population as a Percent of the South Dakota Total: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of highlighting the population growth of Aurora County is to trace its individual percentage contributions to South Dakota's statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than South Dakota's population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1969, Aurora County's population totaled 0.62% of South Dakota's population, while in 2022 it totaled 0.30% thereby yielding a -0.32% share-shift.
Aurora County Population: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 highlights the short-run pattern of Aurora County's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Aurora County's population contracted at an annual rate of -0.76% over 1970-2022. The county recorded its highest growth in 1971 (5.10%) and posted its lowest growth in 1972 (-4.92%). In 2022, Aurora County's population grew by 0.84% Aurora County Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again shows the annual percent change in Aurora County's population since 1970, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, Aurora County's annual population growth rate averaged -1.09%. It averaged -1.60% throughout the 1980s, -0.39% during the 1990s, -1.12% during the 2000s, 0.16% throughout the 2010s, 0.01% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Aurora County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for South Dakota and the nation. As the chart reveals, Aurora County's average annual population growth amounted to less than South Dakota's average throughout the 1970s (-1.09% vs. 0.31%), amounted to less than South Dakota's average throughout the 1980s (-1.60% vs. 0.11%), recorded under South Dakota's average in the 1990s (-0.39% vs. 0.75%), trailed South Dakota's average during the 2000s (-1.12% vs. 0.73%), recorded under South Dakota's average in the 2010s (0.16% vs. 0.90%), and lagged South Dakota's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (0.01% vs. 1.02%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, Aurora County trailed the nation over the 1970s (-1.09% vs. 1.10%), fell under the nation in the 1980s (-1.60% vs. 0.95%), fell below the nation throughout the 1990s (-0.39% vs. 1.23%), trailed the nation over the 2000s (-1.12% vs. 0.95%), fell below the nation over the 2010s (0.16% vs. 0.74%), and posted below the nation over 2020-2022 (0.01% vs. 0.31%).
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